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- Title
Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system.
- Authors
MacLachlan, C.; Arribas, A.; Peterson, K. A.; MaidENs, A.; Fereday, D.; Scaife, A. A.; Gordon, M.; Vellinga, M.; Williams, A.; Comer, R. E.; Camp, J.; Xavier, P.; Madec, G.
- Abstract
This article describes the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216-0.7°) and the ocean (0.25°), and implementation of a 3D-Var assimilation system for ocean and sea-ice conditions. GloSea5 shows improved year-to-year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, GloSea5 shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.
- Subjects
WEATHER forecasting; NORTH Atlantic oscillation; METEOROLOGICAL precipitation; GREAT Britain. Meteorological Office; EL Nino
- Publication
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2015, Vol 141, Issue 689, p1072
- ISSN
0035-9009
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/qj.2396