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- Title
Modeling the U.S. national distribution of waterborne pathogen concentrations with application to Cryptosporidium parvum.
- Authors
Crainiceanu, Ciprian M.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Ruppert, David; Behr, Christopher T.
- Abstract
This paper provides a general statistical methodology for modeling environmental pathogen concentrations in natural waters. A hierarchical model of pathogen concentrations captures site and regional random effects as well as random laboratory recovery rates. Recovery rates were modeled by a generalized linear mixed model. Two classes of pathogen concentration models are differentiated according to their ultimate purpose: water quality prediction or health risk analysis. A fully Bayesian analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation is used for statistical inference. The applicability of this methodology is illustrated by the analysis of a national survey of Cryptosporidium parvum concentrations, in which 93% of the observations were zero counts.
- Publication
Water Resources Research, 2003, Vol 39, Issue 9, pn/a
- ISSN
0043-1397
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2002WR001664