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- Title
The determinants of a resilient food system for Finland in the 2020s—three opinion polls for improvements based on a Delphi study among food system experts.
- Authors
Rikkonen, Pasi; Rimhanen, Karoliina; Aro, Kalle; Aakkula, Jyrki
- Abstract
Sudden shocks, disturbances, and changes in today's and the future's operating environment call for a more resilient food system. COVID-19 and Russia's latest war in Ukraine have revealed that rapid shocks and disturbances in global social-ecological systems can affect societies and pose various risks to food security. The discussion of food security and especially food supply security under uncertain changes has therefore been highlighted. In this study, food system resilience and the driving forces and current trends affecting it were evaluated in an expert panel study. We used the Delphi technique for the data collection, which included several rounds of iterative evaluation of future food system development up to 2030. We analysed the results using cluster analysis. Based on the results, three clusters were identified which weigh different points within the development foci of food system resilience, namely: (1) the lack of efficient and consensual global crisis preparedness, (2) looking after domestic food production, and (3) trusting the current good efforts in resilience building. The key resilience determinants in each cluster and their importance analysis are presented. We also present enablers and barriers from techno-economic, politico-institutional, and socio-cognitive perspectives that hinder or support resilience building. Highlights: • The weakest point in terms of food system resilience is primary production and its poor profitability. • Consensus topics increased protein crop and domestic RE production and the backup power systems. • Collaboration between actors increases trust and systemic understanding of food system development. • Clear targets and criteria for food system resilience should be created. • Resilience should be included in the strategies that guide food system development.
- Subjects
UKRAINE; FINLAND; RUSSIA; PUBLIC opinion polls; RUSSIAN invasion of Ukraine, 2022-; TWENTY twenties; PANEL analysis; BACK up systems
- Publication
European Journal of Futures Research, 2023, Vol 11, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
2195-2248
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1186/s40309-023-00215-z