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- Title
BioPrev-C -- development and validation of a contemporary prostate cancer risk calculator.
- Authors
Hermanns, Thomas; Wettstein, Marian S.; Kaufmann, Basil; Lautenbach, Noemie; Kaufmann, Ernest; Saba, Karim; Schmid, Florian A.; Hötker, Andreas M.; Müntener, Michael; Umbeh, Martin; Poyet, Cedric
- Abstract
Objectives: To develop a novel biopsy prostate cancer (PCa) prevention calculator (BioPrev-C) using data from a prospective cohort all undergoing mpMRI targeted and transperineal template saturation biopsy. Materials and methods: Data of all men who underwent prostate biopsy in our academic tertiary care center between 11/2016 and 10/2019 was prospectively collected. We developed a clinical prediction model for the detection of high-grade PCa (Gleason score ≥7) based on a multivariable logistic regression model incorporating age, PSA, prostate volume, digital rectal examination, family history, previous negative biopsy, 5-alpha-reductase inhibitor use and MRI PI-RADS score. BioPrev-C performancewas externally validated in another prospective Swiss cohort and compared with two other PCa risk-calculators (SWOP-RC and PBCG-RC). Results: Of 391 men in the development cohort, 157 (40.2%) were diagnosed with high-grade PCa. Validation of the BioPrev C revealed good discrimination with an area under the curve for high-grade PCa of 0.88 (95% Confidence Interval 0.82- 0.93), which was higher compared to the other two risk calculators (0.71 for PBCG and 0.84 for SWOP). The BioPrev-C revealed good calibration in the low-risk range (0 - 0.25) andmoderate overestimation in the intermediate risk range (0.25 - 0.75). The PBCG-RC showed good calibration and the SWOP-RC constant underestimation of high-grade PCa over the whole prediction range. Decision curve analyses revealed a clinical net benefit for the BioPrev-C at a clinical meaningful threshold probability range (≥4%), whereas PBCG and SWOP calculators only showed clinical net benefit above a 30% threshold probability. Conclusion: BiopPrev-C is a novel contemporary risk calculator for the prediction of high-grade PCa. External validation of the BioPrev-C revealed relevant clinical benefit, which was superior compared to other well-known risk calculators. The BioPrev-C has the potential to significantly and safely reduce the number of men who should undergo a prostate biopsy.
- Subjects
ENDORECTAL ultrasonography; PROSTATE cancer; GLEASON grading system; DISEASE risk factors; DIGITAL rectal examination; PROSTATE biopsy; CALCULATORS; DECISION making
- Publication
Frontiers in Oncology, 2024, p1
- ISSN
2234-943X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3389/fonc.2024.1343999