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- Title
Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting based on Grey Model and Markov Chain.
- Authors
Xiangyan Zeng; Lan Shu; Jing Jiang
- Abstract
This article deals with the forecasting of interval and triangular fuzzy number series based on accumulation method GM (1, 1) (AMGM (1, 1)) and Markov chain. Because AMGM (1, 1) only suit precise number, the interval and triangular fuzzy number series are transformed into precise number series. The transformation process maintains the integrity and the relative position of the boundary points of the fuzzy number. Because GM (1, 1) is not suitable for the long-term and strongly fluctuating prediction, Markov chain theory is applied to modify AMGM (1, 1). The interval predictions of the Consumer Price Index and the power load show the effectiveness of the models proposed in the paper.
- Subjects
FUZZY systems; TIME series analysis; MARKOV chain Monte Carlo; GRAY forecasting model; BOUNDARY value problems
- Publication
IAENG International Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2016, Vol 46, Issue 4, p464
- ISSN
1992-9978
- Publication type
Article