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- Title
A KÁRPÁT-MEDENCEI MAGYARSÁG NÉPESSÉG-ELŐRESZÁMÍTÁSA, 2011-2051.
- Authors
Márton, Péti; Levente, Pakot; Zoltán, Megyesi; Balázs, Szabó
- Abstract
The study provides an overview of the demographic characteristics of the major Hungarian communities living in the Carpathian Basin (in Hungary and its neighbouring countries). It also presents the projection of the Hungarian population till 2051. The research covers the population of Hungary and some surrounding countries (with >100.000 native ethnic Hungarians) and their regions inhabited by ethnic Hungarians: Slovakia, Transcarpathia (Ukraine), Transylvania (Romania) and Vojvodina (Serbia). The projection was made using the cohort-component method along four scenarios (baseline, pessimistic, optimistic, balanced migration) for the 2051 population of each Hungarian community and the expected ethnic ratio within the mentioned countries. Based on the results, the number of Hungarians in the Carpathian Basin will decrease similarly to the total population of this macro region (from the current 12 million to about 9 million in the next thirty years, according to the most probable scenario). The number of Hungarians in 2051 can be between 6.6 and 8.5 million in Hungary, between 320 and 370 thousand in Slovakia, between 640 and 900 thousand in Transylvania, between 71 and 94 thousand in Transcarpathia and between 110 and 157 thousand in Vojvodina depending on which projection scenario will materialize. The proportion of the Hungarian population in the neighbouring countries is generally also expected to decrease, at least slightly, but individual country scenarios can differ significantly. Based on the current aging processes, the projection assumes an elderly population of 25-33% by 2051, and the dependency ratio will also deteriorate (it could double from the current level). Negative trends would otherwise be substantially mitigated, both by an increase in natural reproduction or even by a change in negative migration trends (at least to a balanced [zero amount] migration balance).
- Publication
Demográfia, 2020, Vol 63, Issue 4, p1
- ISSN
1787-940X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.21543/DEM.63.4.1