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- Title
基于多退耕情景的吉林省中部黑土区固碳 潜力与增汇格局研究.
- Authors
胡冰清; 李文博; 祝元丽
- Abstract
[Objective]In an attempt to increase carbon stock in the agricultural sector, the marginalized and unstable lands were identified as the fallow plots, carbon sinks due to ecological fallowing under future multi-gradient fallowing scenarios were explored to provide an crucial basis for arranging the fallow of marginalised cropland and enriching the theory of carbon sequestration in the northeast black soil region. [Methods]Based on the 2005 and 2020 land use data in the central black soil area of Jilin Province, a multi-gradient fallow scenario was simulated by the PLUS-Markov coupled model and the InVEST model, and the carbon stock and the potential for carbon sequestration and sink enhancement due to ecological fallow in the study area were measured. [Results](1)The natural development scenario and three fallowing scenarios A, B, and C with increasing intensity were set in this study. The marginal unstable farmland fallow in scenarios A, B, and C were 1. 5 × 104 hm², 2. 65 × 104 hm², and 3. 8 × 104 hm², respectively. These scenarios were mainly driv-en by socio-economic factors, accounting for about 30%of the total contribution. In terms of fallow types, the returning-to-forest areas widely distributed, mainly concentrated in the places such as Siping, Dongliao, and Changchun, while the returning-to-grass areas were smaller but exhibited spatial aggregation features, which were mainly located in the places such as Shuangliao and Nong'an. (2)As the simulated fallow intensi-ty increased, the carbon stock in the study area also indicated an increasing trend. Under fallow scenarios A, B, and C, the estimated carbon storage would reach up to 7. 26 × 106 Mg, 7. 27 × 106 Mg和7. 27 × 106 Mg, respectively, which decreased from the southeast and the northwest. The areas with high carbon sinks concentrated mainly in areas such as Shulan, Yongji, and Huadian. (3)Under different fallow scenarios, the carbon sink pattern in the study area remained stable, mainly concentrated in the eastern and southern parts. Considering the factors of food security and agricultural carbon sequestration demand, it is recommended to refer to the fallowing scenario B, and Siping, Dongliao, and Changchun will become the key agricultural carbon sink units in the black soil area of central Jilin Province. It is estimated that carbon stock will increase to 1963. 4 Mg, 806. 48 Mg and 703. 06 Mg, respectively. [Conclusion]The carbon stock increase from the agricultural sector in the black soil region of central Jilin Province depends on the fallow of marginalized croplands in a rolling hilly region. The productivity and the ecological effects arising from cropland use should be balanced in the layout and priority of the fallow projects. Meanwhile, the food production capacity needs to be adjusted in conjunc-tion with comprehensive land reclamation in the entire region in order to achieve the aims of improving the spatial suitability of cropland and the sustainability of the agricultural system in the black soil area.
- Subjects
JILIN Sheng (China); CHANGCHUN (Jilin Sheng, China); SUSTAINABLE agriculture; CARBON cycle; CARBON sequestration; AGRICULTURE; AGRICULTURAL industries; BLACK cotton soil; FALLOWING
- Publication
Research of Soil & Water Conservation, 2024, Vol 31, Issue 3, p230
- ISSN
1005-3409
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.047.