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- Title
Escalating Hot‐Dry Extremes Amplify Compound Fire Weather Risk.
- Authors
Fan, Xuewei; Miao, Chiyuan; Zscheischler, Jakob; Slater, Louise; Wu, Yi; Chai, Yuanfang; AghaKouchak, Amir
- Abstract
Fire weather compounded by extremely hot and dry conditions often severely impacts society and ecosystems. To mitigate and better adapt to these compound fire weather (CFW) events, a better understanding of recent and future CFW trends is needed. Here we show that in the period 1981–2020, the global average frequency and intensity of CFW events increased by 0.6 days/yr and 0.4%/yr, respectively. Increases in temperature and decreases in relative humidity were responsible for significant trends in the frequency of CFW events in 81.7% and 58.6% of locations, respectively. The same trends contributed to significant increases in CFW intensity in 72.1% and 57.9% of locations. We further demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change (due primarily to greenhouse gas emissions) has aggravated the frequency and intensity of CFW events, particularly in the Amazon region, with over 2‐fold and 1.3‐fold increases, respectively. Future projections reveal that other (individual) fire weather events are likely to shift toward CFW events accompanied by hot‐dry conditions, along with an expected rise in CFW intensity. Furthermore, the increased occurrence of CFW events is likely to substantially augment future population exposure to CFW conditions. Under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, climate change is estimated to contribute 62.6% of the projected increase in population exposure to CFW events by the end of this century. Our findings underscore the urgent need for strong climate action to reduce population exposure to the growing threat of future fire weather events compounded with hot and dry conditions. Plain Language Summary: In recent years, the combined impact of wildfires, heatwaves, and droughts has inflicted significant global damage. However, existing wildfire risk assessments often neglect the specific hazards arising from the co‐occurrence of heatwaves and drought, which exacerbate the consequences of wildfires. To bridge this research gap, we systematically quantified the historical changes, meteorological drivers, and future projections of compound fire weather risk (CFW) resulting from the combination of heatwaves and drought. Our findings reveal accelerated increases in the occurrence of CFW events compared with other fire weather (OFW) events, with a rise of 0.6 days per year in frequency and 0.4% per year in intensity. The predominant climatic factors driving the trend of CFW events are changes in temperature and relative humidity. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change has further intensified the frequency and intensity of CFW events. Projections indicate a substantial rise in fire weather risk associated with heatwaves and drought throughout the 21st century, while OFW risks (such as individual fire weather events) are expected to decline. This escalation in CFW events poses a grave threat of increased population exposure, particularly under high‐emission scenarios. Key Points: The risk of fire weather events combined with hot‐dry conditions increased faster than other fire weather (OFW) events from 1981 to 2020Temperature and relative humidity play a prominent role in the trends of compound fire weather (CFW) eventsFuture projections indicate a shift from OFW events to CFW events combined with hot‐dry conditions
- Subjects
FIRE weather; DROUGHT management; WILDFIRES; GREENHOUSE gases; EFFECT of human beings on climate change; EVIDENCE gaps; HEAT waves (Meteorology)
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2023, Vol 11, Issue 11, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2023EF003976