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- Title
Quantitative study on natural gas production risk of Carboniferous gas reservoir in eastern Sichuan.
- Authors
Yu, Guo; Li, Haitao; Chen, Yanru; Liu, Linqing; Wang, Chenyu; Chen, Yu; Zhang, Dongming
- Abstract
Quantifying natural gas production risk can help guide natural gas exploration and development in Carboniferous gas reservoirs. In this study, the Monte Carlo probability method is used to obtain the probability distribution and growth curve of each production risk factor and production in a Carboniferous gas reservoir in eastern Sichuan. In addition, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to conduct the sensitivity analysis of the risk factors, and the natural gas production and realization probability under different risk factors are obtained. The research results show that: (1) the risk factor–production growth curve and probability distribution are calculated by the Monte Carlo probability method. The average annual production under the stable production stage under different realization probabilities is obtained. The maximum probability range of annual production is 43.43 - 126.35 × 10 8 m 3 / year , and the probability range is 14.59–92.88%. (2) The risk factor sensitivity analysis is significantly affected by the probability interval. In the entire probability interval, the more sensitive risk factors are the average production of the kilometer-deep well (D) and the production rate in the stable production stage (A). During the exploration and development of natural gas, these two risk factors can be adjusted to increase production.
- Subjects
SICHUAN Sheng (China); NATURAL gas production; QUANTITATIVE research; GAS condensate reservoirs; GAS reservoirs; NATURAL gas prospecting; DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory); NATURAL gas; FACTORS of production; FACTOR analysis
- Publication
Journal of Petroleum Exploration & Production Technology, 2021, Vol 11, Issue 10, p3841
- ISSN
2190-0558
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s13202-021-01261-8