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- Title
Uncertainty Analysis of the Water Scarcity Footprint Based on the AWARE Model Considering Temporal Variations.
- Authors
Lee, Jong Seok; Lee, Min Hyeok; Chun, Yoon-Young; Lee, Kun Mo
- Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to compare the degree of uncertainty of the water scarcity footprint using the Monte Carlo statistical method and block bootstrap method. Using the hydrological data of a water drainage basin in Korea, characterization factors based on the available water remaining (AWARE) model were obtained. The uncertainties of the water scarcity footprint considering temporal variations in paddy rice production in Korea were estimated. The block bootstrap method gave five-times smaller percentage uncertainty values of the model output compared to that of the two different Monte Carlo statistical method scenarios. Incorrect estimation of the probability distribution of the AWARE characterization factor model is what causes the higher uncertainty in the water scarcity footprint value calculated by the Monte Carlo statistical method in this study. This is because AWARE characterization factor values partly follows discrete distribution with extreme value on one side. Therefore, this study suggests that the block bootstrap method is a better choice in analyzing uncertainty compared to the Monte Carlo statistical method when using the AWARE model to quantify the water scarcity footprint.
- Subjects
WATER shortages; WATER use; MONTE Carlo method; DRAINAGE; WATER supply management
- Publication
Water (20734441), 2018, Vol 10, Issue 3, p341
- ISSN
2073-4441
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/w10030341