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- Title
Estimation and probabilistic projection of age- and sex-specific mortality rates across Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2030.
- Authors
Gonzaga, Marcos R.; Queiroz, Bernardo L.; Freire, Flávio H.M.A.; Monteiro-da-Silva, José H.C.; Lima, Everton E.C.; Silva-Júnior, Walter P.; Diógenes, Victor H. D.; Flores-Ortiz, Renzo; da Costa, Lilia C. C.; Pinto-Junior, Elzo P.; Ichihara, Maria Yury; Teixeira, Camila S. S.; Alves, Flávia J. O.; Rocha, Aline S.; Ferreira, Andrêa J. F.; Barreto, Maurício L.; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Dundas, Ruth; Leyland, Alastair H.
- Abstract
Background: Mortality rate estimation in small areas can be difficult due the low number of events/exposure (i.e. stochastic error). If the death records are not completed, it adds a systematic uncertainty on the mortality estimates. Previous studies in Brazil have combined demographic and statistical methods to partially overcome these issues. We estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all 5,565 Brazilian municipalities in 2010 and forecasted probabilistic mortality rates and life expectancy between 2010 and 2030. Methods: We used a combination of the Tool for Projecting Age-Specific Rates Using Linear Splines (TOPALS), Bayesian Model, Spatial Smoothing Model and an ad-hoc procedure to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities for 2010. Then we adapted the Lee-Carter model to forecast mortality rates by age and sex in all municipalities between 2010 and 2030. Results: The adjusted sex- and age-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities in 2010 reveal a distinct regional pattern, showcasing a decrease in life expectancy in less socioeconomically developed municipalities when compared to estimates without adjustments. The forecasted mortality rates indicate varying regional improvements, leading to a convergence in life expectancy at birth among small areas in Brazil. Consequently, a reduction in the variability of age at death across Brazil's municipalities was observed, with a persistent sex differential. Conclusion: Mortality rates at a small-area level were successfully estimated and forecasted, with associated uncertainty estimates also generated for future life tables. Our approach could be applied across countries with data quality issues to improve public policy planning.
- Subjects
BRAZIL; MORTALITY; STATISTICAL models; POISSON distribution; RESEARCH funding; SEX distribution; LIFE expectancy; PROBABILITY theory; SOCIOECONOMIC factors; AGE distribution; POPULATION geography; INFORMATION storage &; retrieval systems; UNCERTAINTY; RECORDING &; registration; DEATH certificates; STATISTICS; FORECASTING; LOCAL government; ALGORITHMS; CHILDBIRTH
- Publication
Population Health Metrics, 2024, Vol 22, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
1478-7954
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1186/s12963-024-00329-x