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- Title
Guessing imagined and live chance events: Adults behave like children with live events.
- Authors
Robinson, E. J.; Pendle, J. E. C.; Rowley, M. G.; Beck, S. R.; McColgan, K. L. T.
- Abstract
An established finding is that adults prefer to guess before rather than after a chance event has happened. This is interpreted in terms of aversion to guessing when relatively incompetent: After throwing, the fall could be known. Adults (N = 71, mean age 18; 11, N = 28, mean age 48;O) showed this preference with imagined die-throwing as in the published studies. With live die-throwing, children (N = 64, aged 6 and 8 years; N = 50, aged 5 and 6 years) and 15-year-olds (N = 93, 46) showed the opposite preference, as did 17 adults. Seventeen-year-olds (N = 82) were more likely to prefer to guess after throwing with live rather than imagined die-throwing. Reliance on imagined situations in the literature on decision-making under uncertainty ignores the possibility that adults imagine inaccurately how they would really feel: After a real die has been thrown, adults, like children, may feel there is less ambiguity about the outcome.
- Subjects
GUESSING (Educational tests &; measurements); ADULT-child relationships; PERFORMANCE in children; PERFORMANCE; DECISION making
- Publication
British Journal of Psychology, 2009, Vol 100, Issue 4, p645
- ISSN
0007-1269
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1348/000712608X386810