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- Title
黄河主要子流域径流及其同旱概率变化研究.
- Authors
刘昌明; 王 冠; 王恺文; 罗秋雨
- Abstract
Drought has exacerbated the shortage of water resources and threatens the stability of streamflow in the Yellow River, posing a significant challenge to ecological environmental protection and sustainable development. In order to provide a reference for dealing with the basin-scale drought in the Yellow River Basin, we focused on an extreme drought, namely concurrent drought over multiple sub-basins, collected annual streamflow measurements from 15 sub-basins in the period from 1956 to 2016, and adopted the methods of Theil-Sen Median and Vine Copula function to examine the multi-year average and annual tendency of streamflow and analyzed the probability of drought simultaneously occurred across multiple basins. We find out that a) streamflow reduction is evident across most sub-basins of the Yellow River during the period of 1956-2016, with the Taohe and Yiluo River basins displaying pronounced downward trajectories; b) A significant correlation exists between streamflow in different sub-basins, and the frequency of concurrent droughts greatly underestimates the potential for such events; c) The probability of concurrent droughts in two or more sub-basins is 37% in the period from 1956 to 2016, 23% in the period from 1956 to 1989 and 59% in the period from 1990 to 2016, with a noticeable increase from the period of 1956-1989 to the period of 19902016. This escalation indicates that the Yellow River Basin is contending with increasingly severe large-scale drought extremes. In order to ensure the security of water resources and the sustainable development of the Yellow River, there is an urgent need to meticulously devise and optimize water allocation strategies for the Yellow River, enhance the judicious utilization of water resources, advance the South-to-North Water Diversion follow-up initiative and bolster the capacity to ensure water security.
- Publication
Yellow River, 2023, Vol 45, Issue 9, p1
- ISSN
1000-1379
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2023.09.001