We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century.
- Authors
Lopez, Hosmay; Lee, Sang-Ki; Kim, Dongmin; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Yeh, Sang-Wook
- Abstract
Future changes in the seasonal evolution of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during its onset and decay phases have received little attention by the research community. This work investigates the projected changes in the spatio-temporal evolution of El Niño events in the 21st Century (21 C), using a multi-model ensemble of coupled general circulation models subjected to anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that El Niño is projected to (1) grow at a faster rate, (2) persist longer over the eastern and far eastern Pacific, and (3) have stronger and distinct remote impacts via teleconnections. These changes are attributable to significant changes in the tropical Pacific mean state, dominant ENSO feedback processes, and an increase in stochastic westerly wind burst forcing in the western equatorial Pacific, and may lead to more significant and persistent global impacts of El Niño in the future. The El Niño - Southern Oscillation can have global impacts, therefore assessing its future occurrence is needed. Here, the authors project that El Niño will grow at a faster rate, persist longer over the eastern and far eastern Pacific, and have stronger and distinct remote impacts in the 21st Century
- Subjects
GENERAL circulation model; SOUTHERN oscillation; TWENTY-first century; WESTERLIES; SPATIOTEMPORAL processes; WIND pressure
- Publication
Nature Communications, 2022, Vol 13, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
2041-1723
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/s41467-022-29519-7