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- Title
A New Index Outperforms the Purchasing Managers' Index.
- Authors
Peláez, Rolando F.
- Abstract
Several recent papers have documented the effects on domestic and overseas financial markets of unexpected changes in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). This paper introduces a new composite index of diffusion indices from the Institute for Supply Management. The proposed index dominates the PMI as an indicator of the growth rates of real GDP and of industrial production. Moreover, as a stand-alone indicator of business cycle turning points, the new index is superior in timeliness to the Conference Board's composite coincident index and equal to it in consistency.
- Subjects
FINANCIAL markets; INTERNATIONAL financial institutions; PURCHASING managers index; ECONOMIC indicators; BUSINESS cycles
- Publication
Quarterly Journal of Business & Economics, 2003, Vol 42, Issue 1/2, p41
- ISSN
0747-5535
- Publication type
Article