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- Title
Dynamics and density function of a stochastic COVID-19 epidemic model with Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process.
- Authors
Shi, Zhenfeng; Jiang, Daqing
- Abstract
Two different approaches to incorporate environmental perturbations in stochastic systems are compared analytically and computationally. Then we present a stochastic model for COVID-19 that considers susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered individuals, in which the contact rate between susceptible and infected individuals is governed by the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. We establish criteria for the existence of a stationary distribution of the system by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function. Next, we derive the analytical expression of the probability density function of the model near the quasi-equilibrium. Additionally, we establish sufficient conditions for the extinction of disease. Finally, we analyze the effect of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process on the dynamic behavior of the stochastic model in the numerical simulation section. Overall, our findings shed light on the underlying mechanisms of COVID-19 dynamics and the influence of environmental factors on the spread of the disease, which can inform policy decisions and public health interventions.
- Subjects
ORNSTEIN-Uhlenbeck process; COVID-19 pandemic; STOCHASTIC systems; PROBABILITY density function; ECOLOGICAL disturbances; HEALTH policy
- Publication
Nonlinear Dynamics, 2023, Vol 111, Issue 19, p18559
- ISSN
0924-090X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11071-023-08790-3