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- Title
An upper-branch Brewer-Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis.
- Authors
Ball, William T.; Kuchař, Aleš; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Staehelin, Johannes; Tummon, Fiona; Smith, Anne K.; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura; Coulon, Ancelin; Schmutz, Werner; Peter, Thomas
- Abstract
We find that wintertime temperature anomalies near 4 hPa and 50° N/S are related, through dynamics, to anomalies in ozone and temperature, particularly in the tropical stratosphere but also throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. These mid-latitude anomalies occur on timescales of up to a month, and are related to changes in wave forcing. A change in the meridional Brewer-Dobson circulation extends from the middle stratosphere into the mesosphere and forms a temperature-change quadrupole from Equator to pole. We develop a dynamical index based on detrended, deseasonalised mid-latitude temperature. When employed in multiple linear regression, this index can account for up to 60% of the total variability of temperature, peaking at ~5 hPa and dropping to 0 at ~50 and ~0.5 hPa, respectively, and increasing again into the mesosphere. Ozone similarly sees up to an additional 50% of variability accounted for, with a slightly higher maximum and strong altitude dependence, with zero improvement found at 10 hPa. Further, the uncertainty on all equatorial multiple-linear regression coefficients can be reduced by up to 35 and 20% in temperature and ozone, respectively, and so this index is an important tool for quantifying current and future ozone recovery.
- Subjects
STRATOSPHERIC circulation; OZONE; TREND analysis; WAVE forces; REGRESSION analysis
- Publication
Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 2016, Vol 16, Issue 24, p15485
- ISSN
1680-7316
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016