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- Title
FORECAST COMPARISONS.
- Authors
Barrell, Ray; Kirby, Simon; Metz, Robert
- Abstract
The article compares the National Institute of Economic and Social Research's (NIESR's) forecasts for Great Britain's economic indicators with the corresponding forecasts from the Bank of England and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). It was found that the NIESR performs better than the Bank of England and the IFS in its forecasts for output and in particular inflation where simple scores are used. It also performs well on the forecasting of the government current budget surplus. Statistical estimates of accuracy provide a less clear picture but their reliability is blighted by the small sample size.
- Subjects
UNITED Kingdom; ECONOMIC indicators; ECONOMIC forecasting; PRICE inflation; BANK of England; BUDGET surpluses
- Publication
National Institute Economic Review, 2005, Vol 193, p70
- ISSN
0027-9501
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1177/0027950105058557