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- Title
The Global Incidence And Prevalence Of Acute Myeloid Leukemia Over The Next Ten Years (2017-2027).
- Authors
Hughes, Michael
- Abstract
Objective: To estimate the global incidence and prevalence of Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) by region over the next ten years using a multi-factorial forecast model. Methods: Using a critically appraised set of country-specific cancer registries, AML incidence was estimated for 45 countries, representing approximately 90% of the world population in 2017. Observed correlations between GDP, AML risk, and survival were used to trend AML incidence over the next ten years. AML survival was trended using an attenuated function of historical trends and factoring in the anticipated uptake of newer, more efficacious treatment regimens in the future by incorporating data from two phase III clinical trials. Prevalence was estimated as a cumulative incidence over preceding twenty years with adjustments for disease-specific and competingcause mortality for each year. To estimate incident and prevalent AML globally, aggregate estimates for each region were divided by the proportion of countries in that region for which direct estimates were made using the methods described above. The incident population was stratified by FLT3-ITD and FLT3-TKD mutation status, based on estimates from the systematic literature review. Results: The incidence of AML in Africa, Latin America, lower-income Asia Pacific countries, high-income Asia Pacific countries, Europe, and North America is 0.4, 1, 1, 2, 4 and 5 cases per 100, 000/ year. The prevalence of AML in Africa, Latin America, lower-income Asia Pacific countries, high-income Asia Pacific countries, Europe, and North America is 1, 4, 4, 7, 10, and 11 cases per 100, 000. Africa is expected to see the highest growth in prevalent cases over the next ten year: 33% by 2027. Conclusion: The incidence and prevalence of AML is expected to increase globally. Improvements in the survival of AML patients will result in 81 thousand additional cases surviving by 2027 worldwide.
- Publication
Journal of Cancer Research & Therapeutics, 2017, Vol 13, pS50
- ISSN
0973-1482
- Publication type
Academic Journal