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- Title
Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks from Day 3 through Day 1.
- Authors
Hitchens, Nathan M.; Brooks, Harold E.
- Abstract
The Storm Prediction Center issues four categorical convective outlooks with lead times as long as 48 h, the so-called day 3 outlook issued at 1200 UTC, and as short as 6 h, the day 1 outlook issued at 0600 UTC. Additionally, there are four outlooks issued during the 24-h target period (which begins at 1200 UTC on day 1) that serve as updates to the last outlook issued prior to the target period. These outlooks, issued daily, are evaluated over a relatively long period of record, 1999-2011, using standard verification measures to assess accuracy; practically perfect forecasts are used to assess skill. Results show a continual increase in the skill of all outlooks during the study period, and increases in the frequency at which these outlooks are skillful on an annual basis.
- Subjects
STORMS; PROPHECY; ACCURACY of information; VERIFICATION (Empiricism); ABILITY testing; SKILLS inventories
- Publication
Weather & Forecasting, 2014, Vol 29, Issue 5, p1134
- ISSN
0882-8156
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1175/WAF-D-13-00132.1