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- Title
Beating the market betting on NHL hockey games.
- Authors
Buttrey, Samuel E.
- Abstract
This article describes a method for predicting the outcome of National Hockey League (NHL) games. We combine a model for goal scoring and yielding, and one for penalty commission, in a Markov-type computation and a simulation model that produce predicted probabilities of victory for each team. Where these differ substantially from the market probabilities, we make 'bets' according to a simple strategy. Our return on investment is both positive and statistically significant.
- Subjects
GAMBLING; NATIONAL Hockey League; TARGETS (Sports); PENALTY boxes; INVESTMENTS; STRATEGY games
- Publication
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2016, Vol 12, Issue 2, p87
- ISSN
2194-6388
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1515/jqas-2015-0003