We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Analysis of SPI drought class transitions due to climate change. Case study: Kermanshah (Iran).
- Authors
Rajabi, Ahmad
- Abstract
Drought is a usual recurring climate phenomenon which happens almost all over the world. The present study investigates the effect of climate change on drought in Kermanshah (Iran). LARS-WG model was used in order to downscale the daily precipitation. Precipitation amount was estimated according to 3 scenarios, A, A B, and B by HadCM3 global circulation model for 3 time periods in the future. SPI drought indexes were calculated regarding estimated precipitation for base time period and 3 future time periods, and drought class transitions were classified. Observed frequencies were calculated by creating 3-dimension contingency table in order to investigate drought class transitions. Drought classes in future time periods were compared to the base time period after calculating the odds ratio and confidence intervals. The comparison indicates that precipitation changes due to climate variability in the future will not cause any increase in moderate and severe/extreme drought frequencies.
- Subjects
IRAN; DROUGHTS; CLIMATE change research; METEOROLOGICAL precipitation analysis; CONTINGENCY tables
- Publication
Water Resources, 2016, Vol 43, Issue 1, p238
- ISSN
0097-8078
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1134/S0097807816120010