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- Title
Agent‐Based Modeling of Alternative Futures in the British Land Use System.
- Authors
Brown, C.; Seo, B.; Alexander, P; Burton, V.; Chacón‐Montalván, E. A.; Dunford, R.; Merkle, M.; Harrison, P. A.; Prestele, R.; Robinson, E. L.; Rounsevell, M.
- Abstract
Socio‐economic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been widely used to analyze global change impacts, but representing their diversity is a challenge for the analytical tools applied to them. Taking Great Britain as an example, we represent a set of stakeholder‐elaborated UK‐SSP scenarios, linked to climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), in a globally‐embedded agent‐based modeling framework. We find that distinct model components are required to account for divergent behavioral, social and societal conditions in the SSPs, and that these have dramatic impacts on land system outcomes. From strong social networks and environmental sustainability in SSP1 to land consolidation and technological intensification in SSP5, scenario‐specific model designs vary widely from one another and from present‐day conditions. Changes in social and human capitals reflecting social cohesion, equality, health and education can generate impacts larger than those of technological and economic change, and comparable to those of modeled climate change. We develop an open‐access, transferrable model framework and provide UK‐SSP projections to 2080 at 1 km2 resolution, revealing large differences in land management intensities, provision of a range of ecosystem services, and the knowledge and motivations underlying land manager decision‐making. These differences suggest the existence of large but underappreciated areas of scenario space, within which novel options for land system sustainability could occur. Key Points: A national‐scale agent‐based model is developed to represent paired climatic and socio‐economic scenarios in the land systemKey scenario characteristics relate to forms of human behavior, interactions and societal preferencesLarge differences emerge between scenarios in terms of land management intensities, ecosystem service provision and land sparing
- Subjects
UNITED Kingdom; LAND use; HUMAN behavior; TECHNOLOGICAL innovations; LAND consolidation; ECOSYSTEM services; LAND management; SUSTAINABILITY
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2022, Vol 10, Issue 11, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2022EF002905