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- Title
ALTIN, BORSA, DÖVİZ PİYASALARININ EKONOMİK GÜVEN ENDEKSİNE ETKİ SINAMASI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ.
- Authors
BARIŞIK, Salih; DURSUN, Engin
- Abstract
In the present study, among many major investment tools in Turkey, possible associations of gold, foreign exchange and stock markets with economic confidence index was investigated. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) bullion gold prices representing the valid gold prices, the CBRT US dollar sales price monthly averages representing the currency, the Borsa Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST 100) Stock Index representing the stock exchange and the economic confidence index data determined by TURKSTAT were included in the analysis and the monthly average of each variable in 2007: 01-2020: 03 period natural logarithms of the prices are based on the data set. Firstly, stationarity levels of the variables were determined by Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests; Zivot Andrews unit root test also was also utilized to determine whether there were structural breaks in the series. Afterwards, Toda-Yamamoto and Boostrapa Based Hacker-Hatemi Granger Causality Test, Hatemi and Roca Asymmetric Causality Test, Balcılar et al. Bootstrap Sliding Window Causality Test, Hatemi and Irandoust Hidden Cointegration Test, Granger Yoon Hidden Cointegration Tests were also utilized in the analysis of the data. As a result of the tests, it was determined that US dollar exchange rate, gold prices and BIST index affect EGE, namely BIST index of EGE. It is concluded that it affects gold prices and the BIST index asymmetrically. The interaction of EGE and BIST in 2008 and the US dollar in 2008 and 2018 is remarkable. In the light of these results, it can be said that gold, dollar and BIST changes are effective in the sense of trust of the Turkish people in the economy and that the dynamism in these variables is a determinant in their economic decisions. Gold, dollar and BIST stability are needed for the confidence of the Turkish people in the economy and the stability of the economy.
- Publication
Cumhuriyet University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences / Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2021, Vol 22, Issue 1, p253
- ISSN
1303-1279
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.37880/cumuiibf.742002