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- Title
Interpreting the transmissibility of the avian influenza A(H7N9) infection from 2013 to 2015 in Zhejiang Province, China.
- Authors
K. C. CHONG; X. WANG; S. LIU; J. CAI; X. SU; B. C. ZEE; G. TAM; M. H. WANG; E. CHEN; Chong, K C; Wang, X; Liu, S; Cai, J; Su, X; Zee, B C; Tam, G; Wang, M H; Chen, E
- Abstract
Three epidemic waves of human influenza A(H7N9) were documented in several different provinces in China between 2013 and 2015. With limited understanding of the potential for human-to-human transmission, it was difficult to implement control measures efficiently or to inform the public adequately about the application of interventions. In this study, the human-to-human transmission rate for the epidemics that occurred between 2013 and 2015 in Zhejiang Province, China, was analysed. The reproduction number (R), a key indicator of transmission intensity, was estimated by fitting the number of infections from poultry to humans and from humans to humans into a mathematical model. The posterior mean R for human-to-human transmission was estimated to be 0·27, with a 95% credible interval of 0·14-0·44 for the first wave, whereas the posterior mean Rs decreased to 0·15 in the second and third waves. Overall, these estimates indicate that a human H7N9 pandemic is unlikely to occur in Zhejiang. The reductions in the viral transmissibility and the number of poultry-transmitted infections after the first epidemic may be attributable to the various intervention measures taken, including changes in the extent of closures of live poultry markets.
- Subjects
CHINA; AVIAN influenza A virus; INFECTIOUS disease transmission; EPIDEMICS; POULTRY industry; PANDEMICS; INFLUENZA transmission; INFLUENZA epidemiology; INFLUENZA; MATHEMATICAL models; THEORY; INFLUENZA A virus; BASIC reproduction number
- Publication
Epidemiology & Infection, 2016, Vol 144, Issue 8, p1584
- ISSN
0950-2688
- Publication type
journal article
- DOI
10.1017/S0950268815002812