We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Pervasive Permafrost Thaw Exacerbates Future Risk of Water Shortage Across the Tibetan Plateau.
- Authors
Wang, Taihua; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Yuting; Zheng, Guanheng; Jin, Huijun; Li, Xin; Yao, Tandong; Cheng, Guodong
- Abstract
Rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provide water to more than 1 billion people living downstream. Almost 40% of the TP is currently underlain by permafrost, which serves as both an ice reserve and a flow barrier and is expected to degrade drastically in a warming climate. The hydrological impacts of permafrost thaw across the TP, however, remain poorly understood. Here, we quantify the permafrost change on the TP over 1980–2100 and evaluate its hydrological impacts using a physically‐based cryospheric‐hydrological model at a high spatial resolution. Using the ensemble mean of 38 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the near‐surface permafrost area and the total ground ice storage are projected to decrease by 86.4% and 61.6% during 2020–2100 under a high‐emission scenario, respectively. The lowering of the permafrost table and removal of permafrost as a flow barrier would enhance infiltration and raise subsurface storage capacity. The diminished water supply from ground ice melt and enhanced subsurface storage capacity could jointly reduce annual runoff and lead to exacerbated regional water shortage when facing future droughts. If the most severe 10‐year drought in the historical period occurs again in the future, the annual river runoff will further decrease by 9.7% and 11.3% compared with the historical dry period due to vanishing cryosphere in the source area of Yellow and Yangtze River. Our findings highlight the importance to get prepared for the additional water shortage risks caused by pervasive permafrost thaw in future water resources management across the TP. Plain Language Summary: Permafrost is the subsurface material that stays frozen for at least two consecutive years. It is both an ice reserve and a flow barrier, the degradation of which will lead to mobilized meltwater and enhanced infiltration at the same time. Here, we employ a physically‐based, cryospheric‐hydrological model to examine the changes in permafrost hydrology across the TP in a warming climate. As permafrost degradation progresses, the deepening of permafrost table and the complete thaw of permafrost would result in enhanced hydraulic connectivity and subsurface storage capacity. These changes could lead to reduced runoff and exacerbated water shortage when facing future droughts, calling for adaptive water management measures to address the potential challenges resulting from the vanishing cryosphere across the Third Pole region. Key Points: Pervasive permafrost degradation is projected in the future on the Tibetan Plateau using a physically‐based cryospheric hydrological modelThe near‐surface permafrost area and ground ice storage are expected to decrease by 86.4% and 61.6% during 2020–2100 under a warm scenarioThe diminished water supply and enhanced subsurface storage capacity could jointly exacerbate water shortage when facing future droughts
- Subjects
TIBETAN Plateau; WATER shortages; WATER management; PERMAFROST; DROUGHTS; GLOBAL warming; ICE; SUPPLY &; demand
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2023, Vol 11, Issue 10, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2022EF003463