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- Title
The Evolution of the Phillips Curve: A Modern Time Series Viewpoint.
- Authors
GRANGER, CLIVE W. J.; JEON, YONGIL
- Abstract
original curve involves a nonlinear relationship between inflation and unemployment. We consider how his original results change due to updated theoretic and empirical studies, increased computer power, enlarged datasets, increases in data frequency and developed time series econometric models. In the linear models, there was weak causation from unemployment to inflation. Rather than using any of the many nonlinear models that are now available, we adopt a time-varying parameter linear model as their convenient proxy, which empirically supports Phillips' use of nonlinear model form and causation, but the strength of this result is much weaker in recent periods.
- Subjects
PHILLIPS curve; PRICE inflation; EFFECT of inflation on unemployment; ECONOMETRIC models; LINEAR statistical models; NONLINEAR statistical models; CURVES; DISPLACED workers; ECONOMIC indicators
- Publication
Economica, 2011, Vol 78, Issue 309, p51
- ISSN
0013-0427
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/j.1468-0335.2009.00839.x