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- Title
Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARSCoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis.
- Authors
Musa, Salihu S.; Shi Zhao; Abdulrashid, Ismail; Qureshi, Sania; Colubri, Andrés; Daihai He
- Abstract
Despite most COVID-19 infections being asymptomatic, mainland China had a high increase in symptomatic cases at the end of 2022. In this study, we examine China's sudden COVID-19 symptomatic surge using a conceptual SIR-based model. Our model considers the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, particularly variolation, from nonpharmaceutical intervention (facial masking and social distance), demography, and disease mortality in mainland China. The increase in symptomatic proportions in China may be attributable to (1) higher sensitivity and vulnerability during winter and (2) enhanced viral inhalation due to spikes in SARS-CoV-2 infections (high transmissibility). These two reasons could explain China's high symptomatic proportion of COVID-19 in December 2022. Our study, therefore, can serve as a decision-support tool to enhance SARS-CoV-2 prevention and control efforts. Thus, we highlight that facemask-induced variolation could potentially reduces transmissibility rather than severity in infected individuals. However, further investigation is required to understand the variolation effect on disease severity.
- Subjects
CHINA; COVID-19; INFECTION; SARS-CoV-2; SOCIAL distance
- Publication
Infectious Disease Modelling (2468-2152), 2024, Vol 9, Issue 2, p601
- ISSN
2468-2152
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1016/j.idm.2024.02.011