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- Title
ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTY ON A DETERMINISTIC MULTIATTRIBUTE EVALUATION.
- Authors
Kirkwood, Craig W.
- Abstract
A method is presented to estimate the impact of uncertainty on the results of a multiattribute evaluation prior to conducting a complete probabilistic multiattribute utility analysis. The method assumes that a deterministic analysis has been completed using a weighted-additive multiattribute value (evaluation) function and that either an additive or multiplicative utility function is appropriate for the multiattribute utility analysis. An approximation procedure is developed to estimate whether uncertainty about attribute levels could change the deterministic evaluation results. An illustrative application investigates the accuracy of the procedure and its use to simplify analysis of the effects of uncertainty.
- Subjects
UTILITY functions; EXPECTED utility; UNCERTAINTY; MATHEMATICAL models of decision making; PROBABILITY theory; DECISION theory; ANALYSIS of variance; DETERMINISTIC chaos; MATHEMATICAL models of industrial management; ECONOMICS
- Publication
Management Science, 1992, Vol 38, Issue 6, p819
- ISSN
0025-1909
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1287/mnsc.38.6.819