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- Title
A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia.
- Authors
Sánchez, Cecilia A.; Li, Hongying; Phelps, Kendra L.; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Wang, Lin-Fa; Zhou, Peng; Shi, Zheng-Li; Olival, Kevin J.; Daszak, Peter
- Abstract
Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351–67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence. Coronaviruses may spill over from bats to humans. This study uses epidemiological data, species distribution models, and probabilistic risk assessment to map overlap among people and SARSr-CoV bat hosts and estimate how many people are infected with bat-origin SARSr-CoVs in Southeast Asia annually.
- Subjects
SOUTHEAST Asia; CORONAVIRUSES; COVID-19; BATS; CURRENT distribution; SPECIES distribution; RISK assessment; WORLD health
- Publication
Nature Communications, 2022, Vol 13, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
2041-1723
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/s41467-022-31860-w