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- Title
Forecasting Real GDP Growth for Africa.
- Authors
Franses, Philip Hans; Welz, Max
- Abstract
We propose a simple and reproducible methodology to create a single equation forecasting model (SEFM) for low-frequency macroeconomic variables. Our methodology is illustrated by forecasting annual real GDP growth rates for 52 African countries, where the data are obtained from the World Bank and start in 1960. The models include lagged growth rates of other countries, as well as a cointegration relationship to capture potential common stochastic trends. With a few selection steps, our methodology quickly arrives at a reasonably small forecasting model per country. Compared with benchmark models, the single equation forecasting models seem to perform quite well.
- Subjects
AFRICA; WORLD Bank; FORECASTING; GROSS domestic product; COINTEGRATION; GROWTH rate
- Publication
Econometrics (2225-1146), 2022, Vol 10, Issue 1, p3
- ISSN
2225-1146
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/econometrics10010003