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- Title
The Case for Using Mean Seismic Hazard.
- Authors
McGuire, Robin K.; Cornell, C. Allin; Toro, Gabriel R.
- Abstract
Complete probabilistic seismic hazard analyses incorporate epistemic uncertainties in assumptions, models, and parameters, and lead to a distribution of annual frequency of exceedance versus ground motion amplitude (the "seismic hazard"). For decision making, if a single representation of the seismic hazard is required, it is always preferable to use the mean of this distribution, rather than some other representation, such as a particular fractile. Use of the mean is consistent with modern interpretations of probability and with precedents of safety goals and cost-benefit analysis.
- Publication
Earthquake Spectra, 2005, Vol 21, Issue 3, p879
- ISSN
8755-2930
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1193/1.1985447