We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Development of a risk score to identify patients at high risk for a severe course of COVID-19.
- Authors
Jacob, Josephine; Tesch, Falko; Wende, Danny; Batram, Manuel; Loser, Friedrich; Weidinger, Oliver; Roessler, Martin; Seifert, Martin; Risch, Lisa; Nagel, Oliver; König, Christina; Jucknewitz, Roland; Treskova-Schwarzbach, Marina; Hertle, Dagmar; Scholz, Stefan; Stern, Stefan; Ballesteros, Pedro; Baßler, Stefan; Bertele, Barbara; Repschläger, Uwe
- Abstract
Aim: We aimed to develop a risk score to calculate a person's individual risk for a severe COVID-19 course (POINTED score) to support prioritization of especially vulnerable patients for a (booster) vaccination. Subject and methods: This cohort study was based on German claims data and included 623,363 individuals with a COVID-19 diagnosis in 2020. The outcome was COVID-19 related treatment in an intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or death after a COVID-19 infection. Data were split into a training and a test sample. Poisson regression models with robust standard errors including 35 predefined risk factors were calculated. Coefficients were rescaled with a min–max normalization to derive numeric score values between 0 and 20 for each risk factor. The scores' discriminatory ability was evaluated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Results: Besides age, down syndrome and hematologic cancer with therapy, immunosuppressive therapy, and other neurological conditions were the risk factors with the highest risk for a severe COVID-19 course. The AUC of the POINTED score was 0.889, indicating very good predictive validity. Conclusion: The POINTED score is a valid tool to calculate a person's risk for a severe COVID-19 course.
- Subjects
GERMANY; RISK assessment; IMMUNIZATION; POISSON distribution; DEATH; DOWN syndrome; HEMATOLOGIC malignancies; IMMUNOSUPPRESSIVE agents; RESEARCH funding; RECEIVER operating characteristic curves; DATA analysis; RESEARCH methodology evaluation; AT-risk people; SEVERITY of illness index; COVID-19 vaccines; AGE distribution; DESCRIPTIVE statistics; EXPERIMENTAL design; LONGITUDINAL method; RESEARCH methodology; INTENSIVE care units; ARTIFICIAL respiration; STATISTICS; COVID-19; COMORBIDITY
- Publication
Journal of Public Health (09431853), 2024, Vol 32, Issue 6, p989
- ISSN
0943-1853
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s10389-023-01884-7