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- Title
Considering large earthquake clustering in seismic risk analysis.
- Authors
Mignan, Arnaud; Danciu, Laurentiu; Giardini, Domenico
- Abstract
Earthquakes cluster in space and time resulting in nonlinear damage effects. We compute earthquake interactions using the Coulomb stress transfer theory and dynamic vulnerability from the concept of ductility capacity reduction. We combine both processes in the generic multi-risk framework where risk scenarios are simulated using a variant of the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We apply the proposed approach to the thrust fault system of northern Italy, considering earthquakes with characteristic magnitudes in the range ~[6, 6.5], different levels of tectonic loading τ˙<inline-graphic></inline-graphic> = {10−4, 10−3, 10−2} bar/year and a generic stock of fictitious low-rise buildings with different ductility capacities <italic>μ</italic>Δ = {2, 4, 6}. We describe the process’ stochasticity by non-stationary Poisson earthquake probabilities and by binomial damage state probabilities. We find that earthquake clustering yields a tail fattening of the seismic risk curve, the effect of which is amplified by damage-dependent fragility due to clustering. The impact of clustering alone is in average more important than dynamic vulnerability, the spatial extent of the former phenomenon being greater than of the latter one.
- Subjects
EARTHQUAKES; CLUSTER theory (Nuclear physics); EARTHQUAKE hazard analysis; PLATE tectonics; FRAGILITY (Psychology); PSYCHOLOGICAL vulnerability
- Publication
Natural Hazards, 2018, Vol 91, p149
- ISSN
0921-030X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11069-016-2549-9