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- Title
Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate.
- Authors
Ullah, Irfan; Saleem, Farhan; Iyakaremye, Vedaste; Yin, Jun; Ma, Xieyao; Syed, Sidra; Hina, Saadia; Asfaw, Temesgen Gebremariam; Omer, Abubaker
- Abstract
The risk of heatwave events and their persistence has intensified in recent past and is expected to increase faster in future. However, the anticipated changes in socioeconomic exposure to heatwaves are still unexplored. Here, we investigate the projected heat stress and associated socioeconomic exposure across South Asia (SA) and its subregions using the newly released ensemble mean of 23 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), population, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections. We used two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, and three‐time periods, that is, near‐term, midterm, and long‐term relative to the base period (1985–2005). We found that SA region has the potential for widespread changes to Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) of 6.5°C, which can exceed the theoretical limits of human tolerance by the mid of 21st century. The SA population's exposure significantly increases during midterm and long‐term periods by ∼750×106 $750\times {10}^{6}$ person‐hours under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. The GDP exposure is the greatest for the same period's up to 200×109 $200\times {10}^{9}$ dollar‐hours under the SSP2‐4.5. Moreover, the foothills Himalayans and northern parts of Pakistan are presently unaffected by WBGT during midterm and long‐term periods under both scenarios. Among subregions (hereafter R1, R2, R3, and R4), the frequency of subdaily WBGT is projected to increase in the region R2 and R4 by ∼70% and ∼90% under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios relative to the base period. The highest upsurge in exposure is anticipated for R2, including southern Pakistan and southwestern India, followed by R1 and R3. Notably, the climate effect is more dominant than the population, whereas changes in GDP effect contribute to the total change in GDP exposure. Plain Language Summary: SA is one of the hotspot regions to the climatic extremes where the earliest exposure to heat waves is expected in future warmer climates. We show that the SA population is highly exposed to subdaily WBGT for midterm and long‐term periods. In contrast, the robust change in GDP exposure appeared for the same periods under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. In contrast, relatively less frequent WBGT exhibited over foothills Himalayans and northern parts of Pakistan. Still, the spatial magnitude of WBGT is more likely to be intensified by the end of the 21st century. Regarding regional aggregate changes, R2 and R4 are anticipated to upsurge in subdaily WBGT relative to the base period under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. We also found that southern Pakistan and south‐northern India are projected to increase exposure to heat stress, followed by R1 and R3. Overall, the projected changes in exposure are mainly due to the interaction effect accounted for ∼650 (800) × 106 person‐hours under SSP2‐4.5/SSP2 and SSP5‐8.5/SSP5 scenarios. It can be inferred that the climate influence is more dominant than the population, particularly for southwestern Pakistan and most parts of India. Key Points: The region of South Asia experiences widespread changes to Wet bulb globe temperature of 6.5°CThe spatial magnitude of Wet bulb globe temperature is likely to be intensified by the end of the 21st centuryProjected changes in socioeconomic exposure are mainly due to the interaction effect under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
- Subjects
SOUTH Asia; PAKISTAN; CLIMATE change; HEAT waves (Meteorology); ATMOSPHERIC models; GROSS domestic product
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2022, Vol 10, Issue 2, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2021EF002240