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- Title
Assessment of Suitable Habitat of the Demoiselle Crane (Anthropoides virgo) in the Wake of Climate Change: A Study of Its Wintering Refugees in Pakistan.
- Authors
Khan, Tauheed Ullah; Ullah, Inam; Hu, Yiming; Liang, Jianchao; Ahmad, Shahid; Omifolaji, James Kehinde; Hu, Huijian
- Abstract
Simple Summary: Climate change and global warming have effects on every ecosystem and have caused huge losses in global biodiversity. This study identified that currently, the study area explored in this work provides a good quantity (around 35%) of suitable habitat for the Demoiselle Crane. The most influential factors determining Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density as significant contributors. Under changing climate scenarios, the study predicted a major loss of species current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and movement towards western–central areas along the Pakistan–Afghanistan boarder. The inevitable impacts of climate change have reverberated across ecosystems and caused substantial global biodiversity loss. Climate-induced habitat loss has contributed to range shifts at both species and community levels. Given the importance of identifying suitable habitats for at-risk species, it is imperative to assess potential current and future distributions, and to understand influential environmental factors. Like many species, the Demoiselle crane is not immune to climatic pressures. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces in Pakistan are known wintering grounds for this species. Given that Pakistan is among the top five countries facing devastating effects of climate change, this study sought to conduct species distribution modeling under climate change using data collected during 4 years of field surveys. We developed a Maximum Entropy distribution model to predict the current and projected future distribution of the species across the study area. Future habitat projections for 2050 and 2070 were carried out using two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) under three global circulation models, including HADGEM2-AO, BCC-CSM1-1, and CCSM4. The most influential factors shaping Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density, all of which contributed significantly to the suitability (81.3%). The model identified 35% of the study area as moderately suitable (134,068 km2) and highly suitable (27,911 km2) habitat for the species under current climatic conditions. Under changing climate scenarios, our model predicted a major loss of the species' current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and shift towards western–central areas along the Pakistan–Afghanistan boarder. The RCP 8.5, which is the extreme climate change scenario, portrays particularly severe consequences, with habitat losses reaching 65% in 2050 and 85% in 2070. This comprehensive study provides useful insights into the Demoiselle Crane habitat's current and future dynamics in Pakistan.
- Subjects
PAKISTAN; AFGHANISTAN; BALUCHISTAN; CRANES (Birds); GENERAL circulation model; REFUGEE children; CLIMATE extremes; CLIMATE change models; ENDANGERED species; WINTER; CLIMATE change
- Publication
Animals (2076-2615), 2024, Vol 14, Issue 10, p1453
- ISSN
2076-2615
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/ani14101453