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- Title
A Preliminary Forecast of the Production Status of China's Daqing Oil field from the Perspective of ROI.
- Authors
Bo Xu; Lianyong Feng; William X. Wei; Yan Hu; Jianliang Wang
- Abstract
Energy return on investment (ROI) and net energy are useful metrics for analyzing energy production physically rather than monetarily. However, these metrics are not widely applied in China. In this study, we forecast the Daring oil field's ROI from 2013 to 2025 using existing data for crude oil and natural gas production and the basic rules of ROI. Unfortunately, our calculations indicate that the oil field's ROI will continuously decline from 7.3 to 4.7, and the associated net energy will continuously decline from 1.53 × 1012 Ma to 1.25 × 1012 Ma. If China's energy intensity does not decline as planned in the next ten years, then the ROI of Daring will be even lower than our estimates. Additionally, relating the ROI to the monetary return on investment (ROI) in a low production and high intensity scenario, Daring's ROI will decline to 2.9 and its ROI will decline to 1.8 by 2025. If the "law of minimum ROI" and the assumed "minimum ROI" are taken into account, then we estimate that both energy pressure and economic pressure will restrict Daring's production by 2025.
- Subjects
CHINA; RATE of return; ENERGY industries; SOFTWARE measurement; CAPITAL investments
- Publication
Sustainability (2071-1050), 2014, Vol 6, Issue 11, p8262
- ISSN
2071-1050
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/su6118262