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- Title
A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function.
- Authors
Ehrlich, Robert
- Abstract
Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications for the large increased numbers of hurricanes which it predicts for a warmer world. Moreover, the rise in recent decades in the numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but not the Pacific basin, is shown to have a simple explanation in terms of the specific form of H(z), which yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures.
- Subjects
ATLANTIC Ocean Region; PACIFIC Area; HURRICANE tracks; MATHEMATICAL variables; ATMOSPHERIC temperature; LATITUDE; GEOLOGICAL basins; LOW temperature (Weather); CORIOLIS force; VORTEX motion
- Publication
Advances in Meteorology, 2010, Vol 2010, p1
- ISSN
1687-9309
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1155/2010/763502