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- Title
Desafios na Terra Média: commodities e indústria no Brasil.
- Authors
Carneiro, Pedro Erik
- Abstract
This article raises the question whether the Brazilian exports of commodities have harm the national industry recently and what are the perspectives. In the introduction, it is presented the breadth and depth of the topic, with emphasis on the relative dependence on the commodity exports among diverse countries. Then, it shows an analysis of Brazil's trade balance and the importance and prospects of Brazilian trade in the world. It was observed a structural change, or at least a deepening of already existing trend, in the trade balance after the 2008 crisis. Exports rose less than imports, particularly by lower sales of manufactured goods and the increase in imports of durables and non-durables. From 2011 onwards, the prices of goods exported by the country began to fall, while those from imported goods presented stability. And there was a concentration on trade with China. There is some international and domestic consensus that the outlook for the Brazilian market is not promising if the country keeps his model of development. In the third section, the analysis focuses specifically on the effect of Brazilian commodities on the deindustrialization of the country. It is possible to see that the impoverishment of Brazilian exports is combined with a process of deindustrialization of the country. Different currents of economists agree with that analysis. The commodities exports are among the culprits, since they may have generated the so-called "Dutch disease", among other factors, such as higher wages that have stronger impact on the manufacturing sector. Given the context of the global economy in the medium term, we do not see change in the profile of Brazilian trade. In conclusion, Brazil did not reach in the past nor it is foreseen in the future any sustainable development based on the world market. Brazil must look to their domestic challenges to pursue its development. The world market is too volatile to boost sustainable development for the country.
- Subjects
EXPORT &; import trade of commercial products; EXPORTS; BALANCE of trade; INTERNATIONAL trade; DEINDUSTRIALIZATION
- Publication
Cadernos de Finanças Públicas, 2013, Issue 13, p133
- ISSN
1806-8944
- Publication type
Article