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- Title
Ein Bewertungsansatz der Geldpolitik der Bank of Japan unter Kuroda: Ist mit Ueda eine Normalisierung der Geldpolitik zu erwarten?
- Authors
Heckel, Markus
- Abstract
This article argues that the Bank of Japan’s unconventional monetary policy under Kuroda Haruhiko had initially some success. The continuation and expansion of quantitative easing starting in the Shirakawa period had positive effects on inflation, GDP, government bond prices, and stock prices. These positive effects disappeared with the introduction of the negative interest rate policy and the yield curve control in 2016. The 2 percent inflation target set in 2013 proved to be a burden too high for the BOJ. But political reasons play a role here, which this article cannot assess conclusively. Since April 2023, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has a new governor in Ueda Kazuo. Ueda, a former professor at Tokyo University, has also gained experience in the BOJ and the Ministry of Finance in the past. Unlike his predecessor Kuroda, Ueda is considered largely apolitical and rather balanced regarding monetary policy. However, given the current state of the Japanese economy, it is unlikely that monetary policy will normalize in the near future. The BOJ and Ueda repeat that inflation must be ›sustainable and stable‹ before interest rates can be raised stressing the important role of higher wages. There are indications that wage increases in the shunto negotiations could be above average in 2024. If wage hikes prove to be a long-term trend, and if inflation rises sustainably to levels of 2 percent and higher, the BOJ will also follow suit with interest rate hikes.
- Subjects
NIHON Ginko; INTEREST rates; GOVERNMENT securities; MONETARY policy; YIELD curve (Finance); BOND prices; CONSUMER price indexes
- Publication
Jahrbuch der Vereinigung für Sozialwissenschaftliche Japanforschung, 2023, p144
- ISSN
0343-6950
- Publication type
Article