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- Title
Who Will Need Long-Term Care?: Creation and Validation of an Instrument that Identifies Older People at Risk.
- Authors
Goodlin, Sarah; Boult, Chad; Bubolz, Thomas; Chiang, Lillian
- Abstract
The aim of this study was to create and measure the predictive validity of a screening instrumentthat identifies older people who are at risk for developing a need for long-term carewithin a year. This was an observational study, with participants allocated to either a derivationcohort or a validation cohort, in the United States. A nationally representative sampleof older community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries (= 6,538) participated in theMedicare Current Beneficiary Survey. Questions addressed sociodemographic, functional,health-related, and utilization characteristics in 1991 and 1992, linked to records of Medicarepayments for health services during 1991-1992. In the derivation cohort, 14 self-reported characteristicswere significant predictors of developing a need for long-term care within 1 year.In the validation cohort, these 14 characteristics identified a high-risk subgroup (18%) that,during the following year, developed a need for long-term care at six times the rate of thelow-risk majority. This brief survey instrument identifies a high-risk minority of older peoplethat will, during the following year, develop a need for long-term care at six times therate of the low-risk majority. This instrument may be useful for targeting at-risk subgroupsof older populations to receive interventions designed to preserve functional independenceand avert the need for long-term care. (Disease Management 2004;7:267–274)
- Subjects
UNITED States; LONG-term health care; ELDER care; MEDICARE beneficiaries; MEDICAL care; DISEASE management
- Publication
Disease Management, 2004, Vol 7, Issue 4, p267
- ISSN
1093-507X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1089/dis.2004.7.267