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- Title
物流绩效对中国木质林产品出口贸易的影响 — 基于“ 一带一路” 合作国家的实证分析.
- Authors
施正煌; 郑雅静; 戴永务; 林伟明; 黄国星
- Abstract
Background——Wood products have the logistics characteristics of large size and low unit value. The logistics performance of China and its trading partner countries may affect the export trade momentum of China’s wood products. For this reason, studying the impact of logistics performance on the trade of wood products in the Belt and Road cooperative countries has strong practical significance. Methods——Firstly, Interaction terms of the bilateral logistics performance index between related countries and China was introduced, ant it was taken as the core explanatory variables and other control variables closely related to the trade of wood products such as the forest resource endowment. Then, expanded trade gravity model was established, which is related to the trade of wood products in the Belt and Road cooperation countries. Finally, after processing the bilateral logistics performance index for a period of lag, the trade volume and related data of wood products exported from China to 77 sample countries in the even-numbered years from 2010 to 2018 are used for model regression. Results——Employing STATA 15.0 software to the expanded trade gravity model, it was found that the core explanatory variable——bilateral logistics performance index, performed prominently in the overall regression. Its regression coefficient far exceeded other control variables affected the export trade of wood products and are statistically significant, indicating that the bilateral logistics performance index presents a stable and core role in this model. Under the influence of bilateral logistics performance index and trade dependence with China, the distance variable changes from significant negatively to insignificant in the stepwise regression results, indicating that under the influence of multiple variables, distance has a hindering effect on wood products. It is foreseeable that with the improvement of the logistics performance index of the Belt and Road countries and the in-depth development of the Belt and Road trade agreement, the hindrance of spatial distance to China’s wood product exports will be infinitely reduced. Bilateral economic scale variable remained stable during the gradual regression, and it was always positively significant through the 1% level, which was consistent with the results of previous studies. Among the control variables, the same economic organization are positive with the closeness of China’s trade, but negative with the endowment of forest resources, which are in line with expectations. Conclusions and Discussions——Bilateral logistics performance index plays a core role in China’s export of wood products from the Belt and Road cooperative countries. It mainly promotes the export of wood products by reducing transportation costs and increasing the speed of customs clearance. First, China can promote the construction of infrastructure in countries along the route by developing the model of co-construction of logistics infrastructure (in the form of undertaking construction, transformation, capital injection, etc.). Second, we can expand the trade market of wood products in related countries, promote the diversification of the export trade of wood products, and reduce the supply chain security of wood products under the influence of major uncertain events. Third, it is expected to establish and maintain agricultural and forestry trade agreements, reduce non-tariff trade barriers to such products, and improve the efficiency of bilateral customs clearance. And it is suggested that we should take advantage of the development of China’s logistics level and fully tap the logistics cost as the “third source of profit”.
- Subjects
CHINA; BELT &; Road Initiative; NONTARIFF trade barriers; WOOD products; FOREST products; GRAVITY model (Social sciences)
- Publication
Issues of Forestry Economics, 2022, Vol 42, Issue 2, p122
- ISSN
1005-9709
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.20210194