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- Title
Analysis of Price Forecasting and Goodness-of-Fit of the Metals Extracted from Deep Seabed Manganese Nodules.
- Authors
Suk-Jae Kwon; Sun-Young Jeong
- Abstract
The development of deep seabed manganese nodules has been carried out with the aim of commercial development in 2023. It is important to forecast the price of the four metals (copper, nickel, cobalt, and manganese) extracted from manganese nodules because price change is a criterion for investment decision. The main purpose of the study is to forecast the price of four metals using the ARIMA model and VAR model, and calculate the MAPE to compare a goodness-of-fit between the two models. The estimated results of the two models reveal statistical significance and are in keeping with economic theory. The results of MAPE for goodness-of-fit show that the VAR model is between 0.1 and 0.2, and the ARIMA model is between 0.4 and 0.6. That is, the VAR model is better than the ARIMA model in forecasting changes in the price of metals.
- Subjects
MANGANESE nodules; MANGANESE ores; METAL prices; GOODNESS-of-fit tests; OCEAN mining; FORECASTING; PRICES
- Publication
Ocean & Polar Research, 2014, Vol 36, Issue 4, p505
- ISSN
1598-141X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.4217/OPR.2014.36.4.505