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- Title
Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers. A new tool to analyse management alternatives under uncertainty in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer.
- Authors
Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Llopis-Albert, Carlos; Morell, Ignacio; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Senent-Aparicio, Javier
- Abstract
Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the fresh water-salt water equilibrium. In this sense Climate change (CC) and Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over a 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several Regional Climatic Models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigations requirements and irrigation returns models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feeds it), and a density dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential GC scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows of the hydraulically-connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and Sea Level Rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable to improve our knowledge about the aquifer and so comprise a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future global change conditions and their impacts. The results show that CC and LULC scenarios produce significant increase in the variability of flow budget components and in the chloride salinity concentration. They also show a low sensitivity to the SLR scenarios, especially in terms of hydraulic head.
- Subjects
CHINA; HYDROLOGIC cycle -- Environmental aspects; RISK assessment of climate change; ECOLOGICAL disturbances; ECOSYSTEM management; LAND use
- Publication
Hydrology & Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2017, p1
- ISSN
1812-2108
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/hess-2017-262