We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
DOES CONSUMPTION TAKE A RANDOM WALK? SOME EVIDENCE FROM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING DATA.
- Authors
Jaeger, Albert
- Abstract
Abstract--Professional forecasts of aggregate U.S. consumption series strongly reject Hall's (1978) random walk hypothesis. Band spectrum regressions show that low-frequency variations in growth rates of expenditures on nondurables and services, defined as cycles taking more than two years to complete, primarily account for the rejection. Consumption growth and professional forecasts of GNP growth are also closely related at the low but not at the high frequencies. Liquidity constraints or durable characteristics of consumption goods may both explain the reported findings.
- Subjects
UNITED States; CONSUMPTION (Economics); MACROECONOMICS; RANDOM walks; ECONOMIC forecasting; SERVICE industries; GROSS national product; REGRESSION analysis; NONDURABLE goods; ECONOMICS
- Publication
Review of Economics & Statistics, 1992, Vol 74, Issue 4, p607
- ISSN
0034-6535
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.2307/2109374