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- Title
Les perspectives financières du système de retraite et du niveau de vie des retraités à l'horizon 2070.
- Authors
Nortier-Ribordy, Frédérique
- Abstract
The outlook for changes in the share of pension expenditure in GDP depends heavily on assumptions of future productivity. If labour productivity were to increase by an average of 1.6% per year, the ratio of pension expenditure to GDP would be stable or decreasing from 2032, to settle at 12.1% in 2070, compared to 14.7% if productivity were to increase by only 0.7%. This stability or even decrease in the share of pension expenditure may seem counterintuitive in view of the expected ageing of the population. The increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64, as a result of reforms adopted, and the smaller increase in pensions compared to earned income would, in effect, counterbalance this ageing. The standard of living of pensioners would thus be between 75.5% and 87.2% of the standard of living of the whole population in 2070, whereas it has been broadly equivalent since the early 2000s.
- Subjects
EARNED income; STANDARD of living; RETIREMENT age; POPULATION aging; PENSIONS
- Publication
Economics & Statistics / Economie et Statistique, 2023, Issue 538, p91
- ISSN
0336-1454
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.24187/ecostat.2023.538.2094