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- Title
Climate change and agricultural productivity in Brazil: future perspectives.
- Authors
Assunção, Juliano; Chein, Flávia
- Abstract
This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Cross-sectional variation in climate among Brazilian municipalities is used to estimate an equation in which geographical attributes determine agricultural productivity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions based on atmosphere–ocean, coupled with general circulation models (for 2030–2049), are used to simulate the impacts of climate change. Our estimates suggest that global warming under the current technological standards is expected to decrease the agricultural output per hectare in Brazil by 18 per cent, with the effects on municipalities ranging from−40 to+15 per cent.
- Subjects
BRAZIL; CLIMATE change; ECONOMICS; AGRICULTURAL productivity; INTERGOVERNMENTAL Panel on Climate Change; ECONOMIC impact of global warming; ECONOMIC impact; RAINFALL frequencies; FARMERS; RICARDIAN equivalence theorem
- Publication
Environment & Development Economics, 2016, Vol 21, Issue 5, p581
- ISSN
1355-770X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1017/S1355770X1600005X