We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Basic Reproduction Number of Enterovirus 71 and Coxsackievirus A16 and A6: Evidence From Outbreaks of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China Between 2011 and 2018.
- Authors
Zhang, Zhong; Liu, Yang; Liu, Fengfeng; Ren, Minrui; Nie, Taoran; Cui, Jinzhao; Chang, Zhaorui; Li, Zhongjie
- Abstract
Background Enterovirus 71 (EV-A71), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), and coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6) are common serotypes causing hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). Analyses on the basic reproduction number (R 0) of common pathogens causing HFMD are limited and there are no related studies using field data from outbreaks in mainland China. Methods We estimated the pathogen-specific basic reproduction number based on laboratory-confirmed HFMD outbreaks (clusters of ≥10 HFMD cases) reported to the national surveillance system between 2011 and 2018. The reproduction numbers were calculated using a mathematical model and the cumulative cases during the initial growth periods. Results This study included 539 outbreaks, of which 198 were caused by EV-A71, 316 by CV-A16, and 25 by CV-A6. All 10 417 cases involved were children. Assuming the outbreaks occurred in closed systems and the incubation period is 5 days, the median (interquartile range [IQR]) R 0 estimates of EV-A71, CV-A16, and CV-A6 were 5.06 (2.81, 10.20), 4.84 (3.00, 9.00), and 5.94 (3.27, 10.00). After adjusting for seroprevalences, the R 0 (IQR) estimates for EV-A71, CV-A16 (optimistic and conservative scenarios), and CV-A6 were 12.60 (7.35, 25.40), 9.29 (6.01, 19.20), 15.50 (9.77, 30.40), and 25.80 (14.20, 43.50), respectively. We did not observe changes in the R 0 of EV-A71 after vaccine licensure (P =.67). Conclusions HFMD is highly transmissible when caused by the 3 most common serotypes. In mainland China, it primarily affects young children. Although a vaccine became available in 2016, we have not yet observed any related changes in the disease dynamics.
- Subjects
CHINA; ENTEROVIRUSES; PUBLIC health surveillance; RESEARCH; SEROPREVALENCE; VACCINES; HAND, foot &; mouth disease; COXSACKIEVIRUSES; COXSACKIEVIRUS diseases; SEROTYPES; BASIC reproduction number; STATISTICAL models; ENTEROVIRUS diseases
- Publication
Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2021, Vol 73, Issue 9, pe2552
- ISSN
1058-4838
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1093/cid/ciaa1853