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- Title
Türkiye'de Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi.
- Authors
ÇEVİK, Emrah İsmail; SUNGUR, Muhammet
- Abstract
The most important macroeconomic targets are to increase number of employment and to provide sustainable economic growth in terms of policy makers. The most effective policy in reducing unemployment is seen as increasing economic growth. Therefore, accurate analyses of the relation between unemployment and economic growth to provide valuable information for policy makers. In this study, the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Turkey were examined empirically for the periods of 2000-2018 in terms of the Okun's Law. We employ both linear and nonlinear models to determine whether the Okun's Law is valid in Turkey. Empirical results suggest that the relation between unemployment and economic growth is not linear and two-state Markov Switching model is found to be better characterizes the data than linear model. The first state is called as high unemployment regime and the second one is named as low unemployment regime according to Markov Switching model results. Also, we determine that the relation between unemployment and economic growth is negative and statistically significant in both regimes and these findings are consistent with theoretical expectations. These results suggest the presence of inverse relation between unemployment and economic growth in both regimes. However, we find that yearly economic growth must be at least as 14.5% and 8.3% for the high and low unemployment regimes respectively to reduce unemployment rate by 1%.
- Subjects
TURKEY; UNEMPLOYMENT statistics; INFORMATION policy; ECONOMIC expansion; MARKOV processes; UNEMPLOYMENT
- Publication
Journal of Social Security / SGD-Sosyal Güvenlik Dergisi, 2021, Vol 11, Issue 2, p308
- ISSN
2146-4839
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.32331/sgd.1049031