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- Title
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY YOUR VOTE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE?
- Authors
GELMAN, ANDREW; SILVER, NATE; EDLIN, AARON
- Abstract
One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state-by-state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election. ( JEL H0)
- Subjects
UNITED States; VOTING; POLITICAL participation; ELECTORAL college; UTILITY theory; SOCIAL influence; UNITED States presidential election, 2008; UNITED States politics &; government
- Publication
Economic Inquiry, 2012, Vol 50, Issue 2, p321
- ISSN
0095-2583
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/j.1465-7295.2010.00272.x